I just visited proxyfor.me after your suggestion to Ed. I’ve been out of the
[MG] loop for a while and didn’t know you had put this out. I read a lot of
your material on Matchism a while back but I guess it didn’t all sink in. I
do remember feeling a bit overwhelmed with it all.
A nearly universal reaction. Simplifying and/or extracting out parts
is the most common request I get. The only sop to that I've made (so
far) to that is to create an Executive Summary, which I still kind of
believe was a mistake because unless you read far enough to understand
the history and motivations the Executive Summary I think it maybe
sounds kind of crackpot.
In my defense, though, I note that if you ask a million people if
they've read the foundational documents of our civilizations (the
Bible, the Federalist Papers, Mein Kampf, the Communist Manifesto,
etc.) you'll find maybe a handful who has read even one in its
entirety, and probably zero who has read all of them (present company
excluded, of course). Social Engineering is hard work and IMHO not
something armchair dabblers are going to be any good at. But we got
where we are without most people knowing this stuff, so it's not
discouraging to me that they won't have read the design documents for
the next system either.
I think proxyfor.me conveys the essence of your model in a more succinct and
understandable manner. Very interesting. I’m looking forward to digging in a
little deeper. It will likely take a while for me to fully grok it, but in
the meantime, I have some more questions. My apologies if you’ve been over
this already.
No problem. Note that proxyfor.me is up, but that the weekly automatic
advancement has been turned off so you won't get the full experience
now (in particular you won't get the emails telling you what your
calculated and the recorded votes were). After I finish the next round
of upgrades and put together a real marketing plan I'll turn it back
on, but that's looking to be at least a few months off. I've also got
to build a budgeting system (which is mostly designed), but that'll
have to wait until the version after.
- Given the # of statements in the questionnaire, how many different
personality types or proxy iterations could be generated?
13,348,388,671,875 (i.e. 75^7). But that doesn't consider correlations
between items. But it's important to keep in mind that there are no
"types" (a term that makes psychologists cringe, eg. read the
"criticism" section of
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers%E2%80%93Briggs_Type_Indicator)
because all of these traits are continuous dimensions. Your matched
proxies come from a 75 dimensional space that of course no human can
even hope to conceive of, let alone function in. And yet the math is
actually quite simple (a few dozen lines of code that any competent
programmer could easily verify the operation of).
I'm asking this
because that would to some degree, it seems, determine how many proxies
would be required for any given population of voters. (This is assuming
every voter would be matched identically to a proxy of the same result.) And
I’m curious about the degree of finesse pf.m would provide. E.g., would it
know that I like a coconut chai latte with a dusting of cinnamon and cocoa?
:)
All I have is my bot data so far (and they don't drink ;-) but the
number of proxies necessary to get pretty good matches was
surprisingly small: Diminishing returns sets in big time once you get
up to a few thousand direct votes.
As to correlations between these dimensions and how you act (or indeed
even what you look like) in "meat world", that whole field is just in
its infancy. But there are some tantalizing hints that we could indeed
predict many of these things. A good example of this is the
correlation between body type and political orientation:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236740731_The_Ancestral_Logic_of_Politics
There's similar data having to do with facial characteristics and who
gets elected in misrepresentative democracies. The thing to keep in
mind is that the operation of the system is independent of the exact
set of criteria used to do the matching. It may turn out that it's
sufficient to ask people what their favorite drink is, or even just
have a picture of their face, to find appropriate proxies for them.
- What is the incentive for proxies, and what are the requirements?
I'm hoping a desire for "good government" is a sufficient motivator.
There are no requirements for casting a direct vote and at this point
am unsure whether we'll need to encourage or discourage certain kinds
of people from doing so. That's a bridge we'll have to cross if/when
we come to it. For example, my prediction is that we'll have no
trouble getting enough conservatives voting because the studies have
all shown that they are *much* more likely to participate in our
existing systems (yet another problem with Ed's "The people who care
should participate" philosophy, which to me just means that
authoritarians run the world, as they largely do now). But getting
enough low-conscientiousness individuals to vote could very well turn
out to be a problem that we'll need to address by offering them some
sort of incentive (if only doing something like telling them in
advance that if they cast a direct vote it will be multiplied by
hundreds or thousands because so few other people in their particular
region of the 75-dimensional space will do so).
How
would we know they actually thoroughly research and understand any given
proposal before voting on it...for us? And is there some redundancy built
in? (I had a difficult time navigating back to the page where you talked
about proxies.)
You don't know that they didn't just make a snap judgement or just
voted like Steve Bannon told them to. But you do have access to their
posts and cites and so can probably fairly easily identify and block
the crackpots and those trying to game the system. And there are (at
least currently) 5 proxy matches calculated for each proxy vote, which
is at least somewhat resistant to corruption by outliers. After the
system has been running for awhile my prediction (and hope) is that
people will start to recognize the people most commonly matched to
them and learn to trust them. That'll give people a feeling that they
have "chosen" their proxies (a perception you in particular seemed to
desire), when in fact all they've really done is chosen not to reject
them. Where we decide to take that WRT social-media in general also
remains to be decided (e.g., Do we provide a button that will
friend/follow a matched proxy on FB or Twitter? What happens when
someone does a cluster analysis and decides to form a political party,
or even just a social organization, based on having identified a
cohesive "group"?)
- How would this platform scale? Would there be multiple independent
iterations (or instances) and, if so, based on what? E.g., would there be
one for global proposals, a multitude of them for regional bodies, and so
on? Or would there be just one platform that would manage votes and
proposals based on location, or some other template for constituency?
From an engineering sense it'll be straightforward to scale to
billions of people: It's built on MongoDB and AWS which have pretty
amazing distributed processing features (multiple servers all over the
world, with high reliability and failover capabilities, all built for
e-commerce). And it's easily portable to any other cloud platform for
when we decide that it's not really a good idea to be completely
dependent on Amazon for servers. But the design pretty much requires
centralization (albeit distributed centralization).
How the regional/local boundaries are drawn I think is hard to predict
at this point. Certainly the "global" scale is the most important and
all I've built so far. Overlapping jurisdictions (county/state/region)
are a real PITA, both from an implementation and social engineering
perspective and if I could just wave my magic wand I'd get rid of them
(vast amounts of government resources are simply wasted dealing with
interjurisdictional redundancy and conflict), but I fear we're going
to have to develop some sort of architecture for dealing with it...
- Who can present a proposal?
Anyone, but it has to go through the executive branch (which at this
point is me ;-) Quality of content is going to be key at all stages of
the adoption process: Equally bad are the kind of wacko proposals I've
seen on LQFB and other public-facing decisionmaking systems and the
legal mumbo-jumbo you see in the average bill posed at the state and
federal levels. The executive should have no incentive to restrict
anyone proposing anything other than ensuring that it's both
intelligible and legally defensible (which unfortunately rules out
probably 95% of what we see in existing systems). If there's
something you'd like to see, by all means send it in. Otherwise I've
got a queue of several dozen more proposals that need to be polished
up and put into the queue if you lack for something to do ;-)
I’m sure I’ll have more questions after I play around and ponder it all for
a bit. Great work!
Thanks: I look forward to getting your report.
Regards,
Scott
Steve
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